That means the Fed could want to take a pause to monitor the continuing impact of what it has already done. So, it will take some months for the full effect of its aggressive tightening cycle to show up in the economy. The Fed’s interest rate hikes flow through the economy with a lag. While that has complicated the Fed’s plan to stabilize prices, it also could benefit the central bank by doing some of its work for it by slowing spending. The collapses of regional lenders Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic have accelerated the tightening of credit conditions. But if such a scenario were to happen, it could have catastrophic consequences for the economy and financial markets that would require the Fed wait for the crisis to be resolved before taking action. President Joe Biden and congressional leaders have maintained that the US will likely not default on its debt. But that decision isn’t set in stone, and the Fed will likely monitor three key factors in making its decision, he said. Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors, also expects the Fed to hold rates steady in June. “The absence of any such preparation is the signal and gives us additional confidence that the Fed is not going to hike in June absent a very big surprise in the remaining data, though we should expect a hawkish pause,” Evercore ISI strategists said in a May 19 note. Traders pared down their expectations to about a 18.6% chance that the central bank will raise rates next month, as of Friday evening.Įxperts seem to agree that the Fed is unlikely to raise rates again in June. In a panel with former Fed head Ben Bernanke, Powell said that uncertainty remains surrounding how much demand will decline from tighter credit conditions and the lagged effects of hiking rates. Then, Fed Chair Jerome Powell weighed in mid-morning Friday. Traders saw a roughly 36% chance last Thursday that the Fed will raise rates by another quarter point in June, up from around 15.5% on May 12, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Jobless claims declined more than expected for the week ended May 13, staying below historical averages. Retail spending rebounded in April after two months of declines, suggesting that consumers are still spending despite tightening their purse strings. Then, a slate of economic data last week came in stronger than expected. What happened: The Fed’s meeting earlier this month fueled hopes that it was done with rate hikes, at least for now. Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates at its next meeting in June - for the 11th time in a row - or pause? Wall Street seems to be betting on the latter, but it was a topsy-turvy journey to that consensus last week.
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